SAPHIR

Providing reliable forecasts of severe weather events is a major issue in many areas such as civil safety or renewable energy production. SAPHIR proposes to combine high-resolution (sub-km) atmospheric dynamics models and a set of direct measurements from weather stations, atmospheric monitoring programs or a dedicated sensor network within a "deep learning” architecture specifically optimized for improving forecasting accuracy. We plan to use this approach to improve the forecast (at horizons ranging from few tens of minutes to few days) of intense weather events including rainfalls and electrical activity with an application to river flooding forecasting. SAPHIR is also aiming for an application in the field of renewable energies by improving the forecast of solar irradiance and wind strength, which are determining factors for the production of solar or wind power plants. The 4-year project will explore the potentialities of these approaches to improve predictions of intense weather events in the French Mediterranean area and in particular in Corsica region. The Mediterranean basin has quite a unique character with specific physiographic conditions with Corsica featuring a unique observational set-up of an island with urbanized littorals, high mountains and numerous rivers. SAPHIR is organized in four tasks. The first one is devoted to the problem of collecting and storing weather and environmental data on which our approach relies. Our ambition is to make these data open, accessible and validated for each application task. The second task aims at designing the numerical and software framework in order to perform the prediction of various weather variables, with an extensive use of open source deep learning frameworks and high-performance daily computation of a limited-area numerical weather prediction model. The third task is devoted to applying this methodology to the forecasting, the occurrence, location, timing and intensity of thunderstorms. This prediction will be then exploited in a numerical model in order to predict river flooding in a catchment area. The last task is an application to renewable energy production that consists anticipating and mitigating the production of solar power plants or wind turbine farms for the management of renewable energy facilities. Special attention will be paid to the prediction of extreme wind speed or solar irradiance events. A separated coordination task is also defined to monitor schedule, collaboration, organize communication and ensure production of deliverables and reports. Overall SAPHIR relies on a solid experience of the consortium members in the fields of high- resolution simulation (SPE, LA, INRIA), forecasting renewable energy resource (SPE) and Mediterranean storm studies (LA). We will also benefit from various experimental material and equipments available at SPE laboratory and from a large observation network and platforms already deployed in Corsica.