EXIL

EXIL explores how individuals perceive and anticipate the effects of their residential location on their health, daily schedules, and budgets, paying special attention to rural areas. The project is based on the hypothesis that such residential choices are shaped by beliefs and anticipations that may be biased, and/or influenced by limited information, especially regarding health impacts (pollution, physical activity). Adopting a resolutely interdisciplinary approach that combines geography, epidemiology, and economics, EXIL employs spatial analyses, microeconomic modeling, and behavioral experiments. A first step consists in producing objective indicators from administrative data, existing cohorts, and the equipment of a panel (pollution sensors, accelerometers), so as to characterize territorial inequalities in exposure, physical activity, mobility, budgetary constraints, and health status. These data will feed into a mapping of socio-spatial health inequalities and enable the development of a typology of rural areas, according to their capacity to provide an environment conducive to health and well-being. Particular attention will be paid to each territory’s ability to support physical activity, as well as to identifying areas where travel and housing budgets weigh especially heavily on households. Drawing on the scientific literature and epidemiological analyses, the project examines the relationship between place of residence and health indicators (for instance, cardiorespiratory morbidity), and extends an inquiry historically centered on urban environments to rural contexts. A multiscale approach will be adopted, combining individual and aggregate analyses to pinpoint the mechanisms linking contextual effects and population composition effects, while avoiding ecological fallacy. From a dynamic standpoint, EXIL models residential choices by means of discrete choice models incorporating forward-looking agents, whose decisions result from trade-offs between their preferences and anticipations. Causal inference methods will also be utilized to identify the effect of health events on mobility decisions. Furthermore, structural econometric models that account for real-estate market adjustments in response to migratory flows will be employed to simulate counterfactual scenarios, such as the eviction of vulnerable populations following a demand shock in attractive but historically affordable rural areas. EXIL likewise contributes to the literature in behavioral economics by investigating the role of expectations and information in individual decision-making. A panel of 200 individuals will be monitored over four years to document perceptions, behaviors, and reactions to targeted information. This experimental approach will assess the effectiveness of information-delivery initiatives aimed at correcting certain cognitive biases (e.g., underestimation of pollution, lack of awareness of the benefits of physical activity). From a public policy perspective, EXIL seeks to provide practical tools to identify the most vulnerable areas, design territorial planning policies that integrate health considerations, and develop decision-support systems (maps, visualizations, local diagnostics). It embraces a One Health framework, interlinking human and environmental dimensions of health. Finally, it promotes a health-conscious rurality by transposing to rural settings the principles of health-conscious urban planning, emphasizing accessibility, environmental quality, and territorial justice.