MINDSET_Clean_H2

The proposed project aims to create an innovative suite of open-source model tools that contributes to harmonizing the European Union’s (EU) hydrogen (H2) strategy with international development plans. By integrating analytical economics approaches with techno-economic numerical modeling and cutting-edge machine learning methods, we will provide a dynamic, data-based set of tools that can be adapted to capture changing regulatory and market environments. The models will empower industry stakeholders and policymakers to navigate the complexities of the emerging H2 market and supply structures, providing a robust state-of-the-art platform for scenario analyses and efficient planning. By informing the decision-making at all levels, our models can play a crucial role in shaping the future of the H2 economy, driving sustainable growth, and mitigating economic, climate, and political risks faced by the participants of the H2 economy. The project is designed to accomplish three interconnected goals. First, it will help to align the views on the long-term dynamics of the emerging international H2 market, incorporating the role of carbon regulations for H2 imposed by some lead economies. Examining the future market interactions, the study will focus on H2-importing countries, including but not limited to Germany, France, Japan, China, and the U.S., and the emerging H2 exporters, such as the U.S., Australia, Canada, Chile, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, and African countries. Developing a coherent view on the long-term hydrogen trade is crucial for addressing security of supply concerns and mitigating physical and market risks in the EU’s hydrogen economy. Second, we propose a multi-faceted approach that combines the long-term perspective on intra-EU coordination of import diversification with stochastic modeling of short-term market dynamics. The research results will provide input to consistent infrastructure development planning which is required to enable growth of hydrogen demand, including the capacity of import ports and intra-EU pipeline capacity. It also will provide the information necessary to support the EU’s H2 economy participants in their H2 contract negotiations, pricing strategies, and infrastructure cost-sharing. Third, leveraging prior expertise of the project team in natural gas and power markets, MINDSET Clean H2 will become a platform for the efficient use of novel tools, such as AI algorithms, to navigate the complexities of the energy sector. The increasing demand for machine learning capabilities among companies underscores the need for a platform that can provide accurate data and projections to support business decisions. Collaborating with industrial partners, the project will develop a suite of tools that addresses relevant real-world challenges and goes beyond traditional academic research approaches. The proposed collaboration will bring together CentraleSupélec’s (CS) agility, DIW Berlin’s modeling capacities and TU Munich’s (TUM) strategic expertise to innovate in the hot topic of hydrogen market development. This fusion of approaches enriches the partnership and enables the development of innovative solutions that benefit from both the broad, analytical frameworks of the German side and the agile, targeted problem-solving techniques of the French. The shared common framework will facilitate seamless integration and constant communication, allowing all teams to participate with an equal share to the project. The cooperation will also benefit the education of young researchers that will be able to engage with stakeholders, to spend time with the project partners, and for whom topic-specific summer schools will be organized.