SMARtEN

Mountains hazards are a constant threat for settlements and their inhabitants and finding the best compromise between safety and sustainability is a very tough problem which has seen insufficient research so far. Also, mountain environments are changing faster than ever due to concomitant changes in climate, land use and society so that land use planning methods able to cope for complex non-stationarities are urgently required. SMARtEN proposes a new paradigm which can be summed-up with the keywords variability, uncertainty, risk-based, and non-stationarity. This overall ambition is tackled by focusing on four open challenges: - optimise probabilistic-physical mountain hazard assessment; - assess and explain long-range changes in mountain hazards; - develop optimal risk measures and mitigation strategies and assess their robustness; - shed light on past and future risk trajectories. To this aim SMARtEN combines cutting-edge data-science and a truly holistic and interdisciplinary approach. Knowledge is adequately merged within a probabilistic framework based on Hierarchical Bayesian modelling, extreme value statistics and decision theory. This effort bridges gaps between i) physics and stochastic concepts and ii) local processes and large-scale environment–society interactions. Application is proposed for snow avalanches and rockfall and for test areas, the French Alps and other high mountain areas, where wold-class data are already summed-up. All in all, SMARtEN develops a brand-new mountain risk assessment and mitigation toolbox independent of the case study, and, to some extent, of the considered hazard. In parallel, past and future changes in avalanche and rockfall activity and risk are highlighted in test areas on long time scales with unprecedented accuracy. Resulting land use planning strategies usable under uncertain future conditions should significantly advance towards greater sustainability of mountain communities. SMARtEN has been very well evaluated with placement on the waiting list for CoG2019. This ERC springboard project proposes a one-year work program (during 2020) intended to get the approval of the CoG2020 panel during the oral interview. In addition to some work to rewrite the documents and prepare the oral interview, the effort is focused on the realization of concrete proofs of concepts. These will make more visible the global ambition of SMARtEN and the results which will be produced.