MODNAT

The Probabilistic Models for Natural Hazards (MODNAT) project has for goal to develop high fidelity numerical probabilistic models in order to reproduce and take faithfully into account the effects of uncertain natural phenomena. The developed methods will allow to reproduce the most pertinent characteristics of the natural phenomenon involved, either sample paths or statistical quantities such as maxima laws. A key aspect of this project for the model development will be the exploitation of experimental databases. The main applications which will be considered are model construction of turbulence gust, seismic acceleration and sea waves. However the methodologies will be general enough to be applied to other fields such as biology, medicine or finance. The developed models will be applied to various civil engineering fields dealing with risk and certification: seismic assessment of dams, certification of wind turbines to turbulent gusts, design of sea walls and other maritime structures. The different approaches will then be compared and benchmarking is performed. Where possible, the models will be implemented in opensource or other reference software used by the respective community. Another goal of the project is to gather, besides the developed methods in the project, other existing approaches in order to offer a library of numerically efficient methods dealing with probabilistic model construction of natural events to the project partners and the scientific community.