Methods of predicting long-term geopolitical development in Central Europe

First part: Development, verification and application of methods of security prediction in relation to the verification of predictive methodology and its use for the prediction of geopolitical research of Central Europe to 2025. Specific goals: - Analysis and verification of the methodological possibility to predict a long time development of the geopolitical area; - Design and development of methodological approaches and their use in the long time security prediction, according their effectiveness to elaborate methodological guidelines of the prediction of regional geopolitical development; - Application of the methodological guidelines in the context of the case study of long-time prediction of security environment in the Central European region. Second part: To apply and verify the tools of policy analysis in security and defense policy using the example of predicting long-term development of an international organization; to identify strengths and weaknesses of these tools, which could be furtherused for analytical needs of the submitter. To produce partial analytical studies assessing long-term development of an international organization by using various tools (open sources analysis, web communication, virtual and real consultancy, conferencesetc.), which are accessible to independent institutions and security policy networks by making use of the internet and internet-based expert social networks. To test selected outputs (case studies) by means of conferences and workshops attended by experts from both the Czech Republic and abroad.