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Completed
Simulation of extreme weather events, present and future
FunderNetherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO)
Duration26 Feb 2003 - 18 Sep 2005
Project codeCAVE-013
Identifiers
Project timeline100%
Description
From available observational data it has now been well established that the globally averaged surface-air temperature of the Earth has risen by 0.6 C over the 20th century. This warming has an impact on many areas in the world. Glaciers have shown a widespread retreat over the last century and globally averaged sea-level has risen by 10-20 cm. In the executive summary of the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), it is projected that the globally averaged surface temperature may increase by 1.4-5.8 C by the year 2100. In recent years, there have been a number of flooding events over western Europe as well as other extreme weather events, such as extreme winds and hot spells. One of the central questions in climate research is:will the probability distribution of the extreme events become different, from the one in the 20th century, because of a warmer climate? On the basis of the current observational database, however, it can not be reliably assessed whether or not the probability of extreme events has changed over the last decades. Estimates of very rare events that occur 1 in 1.000 or 10.000 years (for example, important for the design of dikes), are based on the assumption that the available timeseries is stationary. We know that this it is not the case. Given the great impact on society of extreme winds, rainfall or hot or cold spells, we propose in this project to calculate the probabilityof such events using ensemble integrations of a state-of-the-art climate model. To assess any changes in this probability distribution due to global climate change, integrations will be performed for present day atmospheric composition and for a projected change in atmospheric composition (the business as usual scenario from the (IPCC) up to the year 2100. These calculations will alow us (i) to validat the methods used to assess very rare events on the basis of short records and (ii) to explore possible changes in extreme events due to changes in atmospheric composition.
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From available observational data it has now been well established that the globally averaged surface-air temperature of the Earth has risen by 0.6 C over the 20th century. This warming has an impact on many areas in the world. Glaciers have shown a widespread retreat over the last century and globally averaged sea-level has risen by 10-20 cm. In the executive summary of the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), it is projected that the globally averaged surface temperature may increase by 1.4-5.8 C by the year 2100. In recent years, there have been a number of flooding events over western Europe as well as other extreme weather events, such as extreme winds and hot spells. One of the central questions in climate research is:will the probability distribution of the extreme events become different, from the one in the 20th century, because of a warmer climate? On the basis of the current observational database, however, it can not be reliably assessed whether or not the probability of extreme events has changed over the last decades. Estimates of very rare events that occur 1 in 1.000 or 10.000 years (for example, important for the design of dikes), are based on the assumption that the available timeseries is stationary. We know that this it is not the case. Given the great impact on society of extreme winds, rainfall or hot or cold spells, we propose in this project to calculate the probabilityof such events using ensemble integrations of a state-of-the-art climate model. To assess any changes in this probability distribution due to global climate change, integrations will be performed for present day atmospheric composition and for a projected change in atmospheric composition (the business as usual scenario from the (IPCC) up to the year 2100. These calculations will alow us (i) to validat the methods used to assess very rare events on the basis of short records and (ii) to explore possible changes in extreme events due to changes in atmospheric composition.
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Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. Provider Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service Expiration Session Name greekSession Description Stores the user session ID for Academic Bibliometrics & Assessment Computational Utility Service. 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