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Completed
Effects of Forecast Uncertainty on Inventory Control
FunderNetherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO)
Duration01 Sep 2015 - 11 Mar 2020
Project code406-15-014
Identifiers
Project timeline100%
Description
An important mismatch between inventory control models and their practical use is that models are based on the assumption that the future demand distribution and all of its parameters are completely known, whereas in practice these have to be estimated. Neglecting or not fully incorporating this uncertainty leads to sub-optimal inventory decisions and, even worse, to not meeting service level targets. This research studies the degree of sub-optimality when using existing models, and develops alternative models that do take forecast uncertainty into account. Both uncertainty about demand parameters and uncertainty about the demand distribution class are accounted for.
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citations 63
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An important mismatch between inventory control models and their practical use is that models are based on the assumption that the future demand distribution and all of its parameters are completely known, whereas in practice these have to be estimated. Neglecting or not fully incorporating this uncertainty leads to sub-optimal inventory decisions and, even worse, to not meeting service level targets. This research studies the degree of sub-optimality when using existing models, and develops alternative models that do take forecast uncertainty into account. Both uncertainty about demand parameters and uncertainty about the demand distribution class are accounted for.
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