Near-future Arctic climate change and its impact on the Netherlands and on Dutch policy

The basic question addressed by this proposal is: what will be the influence of future Arctic climate changes on the Netherlands and how will this impact Dutch policy? The first part is subdivided into two (interrelated) questions: 1) how does Arctic climate change affect the climate of Western Europe (WE) and the Netherlands (NL), 2) to what extent does Arctic climate change provide opportunities for Dutch socio-economic activities in the Arctic (e.g. oil/gas exploration and exploitation, fishery, shipping and transport, tourism), and how does this pose challenges for potentially vulnerable ecosystems with possible impacts on biodiversity. Both issues will impact Dutch policy: 1) WE/NL climate change, affected by specific changes in the Arctic, will directly affect climate scenarios used for Dutch adaptation/mitigation policies. Recent studies suggest that Arctic-induced changes (both in means and extremes) on WE/NL climate might be substantial. However, significant uncertainties remain, which warrants a thorough quantification including uncertainty estimates. 2) Since the Arctic currently undergoes rapid climate changes that may lead to an ice-free summer Arctic possibly within one or two decades, policy measures related to rapid socio-economic and ecological changes in the Arctic, in terms of their desirability and sustainable nature, will probably need to be amended quickly. This study will provide climatological boundary conditions to forthcoming Arctic activities and influences by using a variety of existing high-quality climate model output, state-of-the-art climate models and novel modeling techniques, to accurately quantify Arctic climate change and its impacts on WE/NL climate relevant to Arctic policy measures.