Adventure tourism in Antarctica: an integrated assessment of future trends

Antarctica is like ocean space (outside the Exclusive Economic Zone) and outer space a global common. Interest in these commons is usually based on the perception that they are inherently disaster prone, as is demonstrated by the collapse of seals, whales and fish stocks. Moreover, increasing human activity and new technology have as a rule, a pronounced effect on the global commons and can lead to Garrit Hardins (1968) notion of the ‘tragedy of the commons’. For Antarctica the combined effects of the steadily increasing human activities, both touristic and scientifically, as well as the effects of new fast air links between Antarctica, South Africa and Australia might be a stimulus for adventure tourism in hitherto remote areas. As a consequence special management rules or measures like for fishing, might be needed.Tourism in Antarctica became a serious commercial activity in 1969. Since then the Antarctic tourist industry has grown considerably both in numbers and diversity. The increasing number of (mostly) ship-borne tourists and especially the ever increasing variety of the activities is an issue of concern frequently discussed at Antarctic Consultative Treaty Meetings and the Council of Managers of Antarctic Programs. Although the rules and regulations of the Madrid Protocol also are applicable on the tourist industry, the sheer number of tourists has more than tripled since 1991 and the diversity of the activities is partly due to easier access, rapidly increasing. These activities now include sky diving and parachuting, climbing, ski walking, wind sailing, marathons, scuba diving holidays, surfing, sailing expedition, single hand sailing races etc. In this project Integrated Assessment will be applied to explore the opportunities and challenges of adventure tourism in the Antarctic. IA aims at generating new perspectives and insights in complex issues by combining knowledge from different sources, including academia, but also local stakeholders. IA is useful when faced with complex issues, with a high level of uncertainty, such as the future of adventure tourism in Antarctica the following research questions: ·Which main socio-cultural, ecological, economic, institutional and managerial issues do stakeholders define as problems? In what way do these problem definitions differ from expert views? ·How do stakeholders perceive the future of Antarctic adventure tourism? Which actors are involved? What perspectives (in terms of attitudes, beliefs and norms) underlie the stakeholders interpretations of the salient uncertainties? ·Do the perceptions of stakeholders change through deliberative, participatory processes fed by demand-driven expert knowledge? If so, how and in what way can these insights be used in the design of participatory (process-oriented) arrangements for the management of Antarctic adventure tourism in the near future?