Rethinking Palaeoclimatology for Society

There is a recognised gap in the communication of information generated by climate scientists and evidence needed by policy makers, in part because influencing policy through research is complex and requires skills that might not be valued or common in research systems. The current situation of our Earth's system, together with the social movements for climate justice, urge a step change in how policy and scientists approach Climate Change. Through this fellowship, I will develop new routes for impact in palaeoclimatology and will lead a vital step change in my field of research. Annual to decadal climate predictions may offer important information to Climate Services and Environmental Agencies, which would help guide short- and medium-term climate change strategies. For example, a better knowledge of the frequency and magnitude of floods in the UK. Decadal climate predictions are skilful for surface temperature, but confidence in projections of atmospheric pattern and the associated ecosystem response are less robust. This is, in part, because the amplitude of the decadal climate response is difficult to verify by the available instrumental data (reanalyses), which only goes back a century or two, and the impact of superimposed low-frequency variability might not be well represented. One way to provide more information on the decadal climate response is to include high-temporal resolution palaeoclimate timeseries in reanalyses. So far, the availability of proxy data suitable for this purpose is limited by the nature of the data (qualitative vs quantitative), chronological constrains (dating uncertainty and time-resolution of the proxy records) and geographical location of the proxy records (i.e limited to specific climate regions as ice-cores and corals), hence the study of decadal climate variability in the past is still in its infancy. In order to make developments in this field, I will lead an international research team that integrates palaeoclimatologists and climate modellers. We will combine emerging methodological approaches in proxy developments, chronological constraints, statistical tools and data-model comparison to provide advanced information of past decadal climate variability in the North Atlantic-European region such as shifting atmospheric circulation and occurrence of extreme weather events; and we will develop emergent constraints based on past climate scenarios to be applied to decadal prediction systems. Beyond the scientific goals, the fellowship aims at a better integration of palaeo evidence into climate policy to create a step change in how long-term climate data are viewed and used by policy and stakeholders. We will create a network of policy advisers, policy makers and other end users willing to engage. A co-development model of research will be adopted to develop shared understanding to design the research outputs, and ensure the research contributes to the specific and current needs of the decision makers across various sectors. The ultimate challenge is to create a leading centre for Palaeo Evidence for Policy at Royal Holloway University of London to: (1) build a palaeo-climate service feeding policy makers with evidence to assist decision-making; (2) support palaeoclimatologists in the UK and overseas to make impact cases studies; (3) train the next generation of early career researchers in policy skills. The fellowship will also explore art-based methods for impact. In particular, creative writing to promote climate science literacy for young children.